New Zealand’s two-speed economy seems to have settled in. In the cities it's slow going. Unemployment has hit 5.7%, the highest since 2015, and urban businesses are counting every dollar. Hopefully Black Friday and Christmas will generate new business.

But drive past the last motorway off-ramp and the story changes.

Dairy is doing the heavy lifting. Fonterra lifted its forecast milk price to $9.75 per kilo of milk solids on 30 October, on record milk collections and strong demand from Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Africa and China.

Even wool is back. For years, strong wool was routinely passed in at auction. By the end of last season, coarse crossbred fleece was fetching more than $7.50 a kilo clean, up from about $3 a year earlier.

And farmers' wallets are opening, carefully. After a few lean years of putting things off, many are catching up on deferred maintenance and buying new gear. New tractor deliveries were up almost 11% in the first half of this year.

For our rural members, that's a relief. Every one of those dollars moves on a truck: milk to the factory, fertiliser and feed to the farm, stock to the works, wool to the scour, and new machinery from the port to the dealer. The operators servicing the primary sector have carried the same diesel bills and finance costs as everyone else. A stronger farm gate gives them some breathing room, and we hope this uptick has legs.

A dry summer test

The weather may test it. Earth Sciences New Zealand declared El Niño in July, and it's expected to be one of the strongest on record and to peak this summer. The north and east of the North Island, especially Hawke's Bay and Gisborne, and the east coast of the South Island are likely to be drier than usual.

If pasture browns off, two things happen fast. Supplementary feed has to be carted in, and stock has to move off dry land to greener pasture or to the works. Both can arrive at short notice.

So a word to rural members: talk to your farming customers now about their feed budgets and destocking plans. Check your stock crate and driver capacity before the rush.

Thank you, Minister

Finally, thank you to Chris Bishop whose time as Transport and Infrastructure Minister is over as he has now conceded his seat in Hutt South to Labour’s Ginny Andersen. “The Bish” listened to the people who move the freight and kept the roading pipeline moving. 

We'll miss that, and we wish him well.

Justin Tighe-Umbers, Chief Executive, National Road Carriers Assn