The Light Traffic Index (LTI) continues to bounce around a flat trend, up 0.4% in February and just 0.1% year on year. The more volatile Heavy Traffic Index (HTI) fell 0.2%, which could be characterised as a strong result given it followed a strong lift the previous month. It is up nearly 5% year on year. 

Light traffic (motorbikes, cars and vans) is generally a good indicator of the state of demand, as opposed to production. It typically provides a six-month lead on momentum in the economy – variation reflects discretionary spending on outings, movement of couriers and tradespeople etc. The trend in light traffic is flat, though it hasn’t dropped away in recent months as much as GDP has. In per capita terms (calculated using ANZ population forecasts), light traffic has flattened out after a sharp drop. 

Heavy traffic data (mostly trucks) tends to provide a good steer on production GDP in real time, as it captures both goods production and freight associated with both wholesale and retail trade. The Heavy Traffic Index fell 0.2% in February, but this was after a sharp rise in January, and it is up 4.9% compared to a year ago (three-month average). The per capita Heavy Traffic Index has bounced back after a sharp fall in the middle of last year.