The Light Traffic Index (LTI) rose 0.6% month on month in January, while the Heavy Traffic Index (HTI) rose 2.7% in the month. The Heavy Traffic Index is holding up better in per capita terms.

The Light Traffic Index rose 0.6% m/m in January, while the Heavy Traffic Index rose 2.7% m/m. Light traffic (motorbikes, cars and vans) is generally a good indicator of demand, and in particular consumers’ willingness to spend, as opposed to production. 

Typically, the light traffic data provides a 6-month lead on momentum in the economy. However, light traffic continues to be much more volatile than pre-COVID, making discerning signals more difficult.

Light traffic rose in January, but in trend terms remains very flat. Given current exceptionally strong population growth, in per capita terms the index is trending lower. That is consistent with the observed fall in per capita GDP in the year to September.

Heavy traffic data (mostly trucks) tends to provide a good steer on production GDP. The index is 2.3% higher than a year ago, outdoing the 1.7% lift in light traffic (both expressed as a 3-month average). Like with the GDP data, very strong population growth is masking per capita Weakness.