The Light Traffic Index (LTI) rose 1.0% in August and is 1.5% higher than a year ago. The more volatile Heavy Traffic Index (HTI) fell 1.3% in the month, but is still up 2.6% y/y.

Light traffic (motorbikes, cars and vans) is generally a good indicator of the state of demand, as opposed to production. It typically provides a six-month lead on momentum in the  economy, with variation reflecting discretionary spending on outings, movement of couriers and tradespeople etc. 

The trend in light traffic has been only very mildly upward over recent months, but has looked good in the last couple of months. In per capita terms (using ANZ population forecasts), light traffic is finally starting to turn higher.

Heavy traffic data (mostly trucks, but also buses) tends to provide a steer on production GDP in real time, as it captures both goods production and freight associated with both wholesale and retail trade, as well as exports. 

The HTI has lost a bit of momentum lately. However, the index is still up 2.6% versus a year ago (three-month average). 

Note all data are seasonally adjusted.