September data - The Light Traffic Index (LTI) rose 1.1% in September but is down 1.1% compared to a year ago. The Heavy Traffic Index (HTI) rose 2.2% in the month, and is up 0.7% y/y. The data are seasonally adjusted.

Light traffic (motorbikes, cars and vans) is generally a good indicator of the state of demand, as opposed to production. It typically provides up to a six-month lead on momentum in the economy, with variation reflecting discretionary spending on outings, movement of couriers and tradespeople etc. Light traffic has been noticeably lower in recent months, likely reflecting people choosing to drive less due to higher fuel prices. In September, the index rose 1.1%, undoing the August fall, but the level is subdued. 

Heavy traffic data (mostly trucks, but also buses) tends to provide a steer on production GDP in real time, as it captures both goods production and freight associated with both wholesale and retail trade, as well as exports. The Heavy Traffic Index bounced in September, supporting our suspicion that late-winter storms may have affected August, but it’s still well off its highs.