The Light Traffic Index (LTI) fell 2.4% in March to be up 3.6% y/y. The Heavy Traffic Index (HTI) rose 0.4% in the month, and is up 2.3% y/y.

Light traffic (motorbikes, cars and vans) is generally a good indicator of the state of demand, as opposed to production. It typically provides up to a six-month lead on momentum in the economy, with variation reflecting discretionary spending on outings, movement of couriers and tradespeople etc. Light traffic had been lifting strongly but reversed course in March.  

The monthly move isn’t unusually large, particularly given it came off a strong lift in February, but the fall may reflect people choosing to drive less as fuel prices increased over the month.

Heavy traffic data (mostly trucks, but also buses) tends to provide a steer on production GDP in real time, as it captures both goods production and freight associated with both wholesale and retail trade, as well as exports. It is typically more volatile than light traffic. The HTI is still trending higher after a small lift in the month.