The Light Traffic Index (LTI) lifted 2.5% in February to be up 4.5% year-on-year, its strongest annual growth in three years. The Heavy Traffic Index (HTI) rose 2.4% in the month, and is up a more modest 2.4% y/y, with annual growth trending up.

Light traffic (motorbikes, cars and vans) is generally a good indicator of the state of demand, as opposed to production. It typically provides up to a six-month lead on momentum in the economy, with variation reflecting discretionary spending on outings, movement of couriers and tradespeople etc. Light traffic has lifted strongly in the last few months (figure 1), and is higher in per capita terms as well (using ANZ population forecasts), boding well for economic activity in coming months. 

Heavy traffic data (mostly trucks, but also buses) tends to provide a steer on production GDP in real time, as it captures both goods production and freight associated with both wholesale and retail trade, as well as exports. The HTI is also trending higher, albeit in a more volatile fashion, and also suggests things are normalising after a dip in mid- 2025.

All data are seasonally adjusted.