According to the latest Truckometer report, the Light Traffic Index (LTI) rose 1.9% month on month in February, while the Heavy Traffic Index (HTI) rose 2.4% in the month. However, while both indices have a mild upward trend, in per capita terms they are both trending down. 

Both the Light Traffic Index and the Heavy Traffic Index rose in February. Light traffic (motorbikes, cars and vans) is generally a good indicator of demand, and in particular consumers’ willingness to spend, as opposed to production. Typically, the light traffic data provides a 6-month lead on momentum in the economy, but obviously can’t see unexpected developments like COVID coming.

Despite another monthly lift, the trend in light traffic remains fairly flat. Given current strong population growth (almost 3%), in per capita terms the index is trending lower (using ANZ population forecasts). That is consistent with the trend observed in per capita GDP.

Heavy traffic data (mostly trucks) tends to provide a good steer on production GDP in real time, as it captures both goods production (including agriculture) and freight associated with both wholesale and retail trade. The heavy traffic index is 2.8% higher than a year ago (using a 3-month average to smooth out volatility), while light traffic is up 3%.