The Light Traffic Index (LTI) lifted 0.6% in April and is unchanged versus a year ago. The more volatile Heavy Traffic Index (HTI) rose 2.7%, and is up 1.7% y/y.

Light traffic (motorbikes, cars and vans) is generally a good indicator of the state of demand, as opposed to production. It typically provides a six-month lead on momentum in the economy, with variation reflecting discretionary spending on outings, movement of couriers and tradespeople etc. The trend in light traffic is mildly upward over recent months. In per capita terms (using ANZ population forecasts), light traffic has flattened out after a sharp drop, like GDP.

Heavy traffic data (mostly trucks, but also buses) tends to provide a steer on production GDP in real time, as it captures both goods production and freight associated with both wholesale and retail trade, as well as exports. The HTI lifted 2.7% in April and is trending higher, suggesting the economic recovery continues. It is up 1.7% versus a year ago (three-month average). 

The per capita HTI is also trending higher after a sharp fall in the middle of last year coinciding with recession in the GDP data.