The Light Traffic Index (LTI) eased 0.2% in November and is 3.3% higher than a year ago. The Heavy Traffic Index (HTI) eased 0.1% in the month, and is up 0.9% y/y. 

Light traffic (motorbikes, cars and vans) is generally a good indicator of the state of demand, as opposed to production. It typically provides up to a six-month lead on momentum in the economy, with variation reflecting discretionary spending on outings, movement of couriers and tradespeople etc. 

The trend in light traffic has lifted in the last few months, consistent with other indicators suggesting that the economy has turned higher. In per capita terms (using ANZ population forecasts), light traffic has also lifted.

Heavy traffic data (mostly trucks, but also buses) tends to provide a steer on production GDP in real time, as it captures both goods production and freight associated with both wholesale and retail trade, as well as exports. The HTI remains fairly flat. However, the LTI has had the stronger correlation with GDP in recent times,