The Light Traffic Index (LTI) eased 1.1% in January but is up a solid 3.6% year-on-year. The Heavy Traffic Index (HTI) fell 2.4% in the month, but this was off the back of a 3.2% lift in December. It is up 2.0% y/y, with annual growth trending up.

Light traffic (motorbikes, cars and vans) is generally a good indicator of the state of demand, as opposed to production. It typically provides up to a six-month lead on momentum in the economy, with variation reflecting discretionary spending on outings, movement of couriers and tradespeople etc. The trend in light traffic has lifted in the last few months, consistent with other indicators suggesting that the economy turned higher towards the end of last year. In per capita terms (using ANZ population forecasts), light traffic has also lifted, though it remains well off its recent peak. 

Heavy traffic data (mostly trucks, but also buses) tends to provide a steer on production GDP in real time, as it captures both goods production and freight associated with both wholesale and retail trade, as well as exports. The HTI is also trending higher, with its usual volatility, and also suggests a decent finish to 2025.