Despite rising global trade tensions and looming tariff changes, New Zealand exporters remain optimistic and resilient, with two-thirds (79%) maintaining or growing their export volumes over the past year, according to the 2025 ExportNZ DHL Export Barometer. 

The annual survey, which tracks exporter sentiment and trends, reveals that 59% of Kiwi exporters expect to increase their exports in the coming 12 months, even as concerns over trade wars and proposed tariffs intensify. 

Selina Deadman, Vice President, Commercial at DHL Express New Zealand said, “It's encouraging to see that the majority of New Zealand exporters have continued to ship internationally over the past year. International trade has faced increased scrutiny due to upcoming barriers, it’s a positive indication that exporters are optimistic about cross-border trade, and it will be interesting to see how these expectations evolve in 2026. This also reflects the confidence that DHL Express has in globalisation and its importance in economic growth.”

Recent trade policies enacted by the USA have dominated headlines this year. When this survey was completed, New Zealand was at the baseline 10% tariff level and the elimination of the ‘de minimis’ was scheduled for 2027. This resulted in 53% of survey respondents remaining relatively focused on the US market through 2026. However, now that New Zealand’s reciprocal tariff has increased to 15% and the elimination of the ‘de minimis’ has been brought forward to August 2025, the rest of the year will serve as a test to that exporter confidence.

Executive Director of ExportNZ Joshua Tan said exporters who may be affected by proposed tariffs have sought to diversify by entering other markets. “This year’s survey results show strongly that Kiwi businesses are considering new markets outside their traditional, with the likes of the United Kingdom (41%) and Japan (27%) both seeing an increase of 4% in exporter interest. In the case of the UK, this shift is likely influenced by the New Zealand-UK Free Trade Agreement, which came into effect in mid-2023 and is starting to deliver outcomes”.

Exporters identified the largest barriers to exporting as the cost and availability of transport and logistics (49%), as well as the high cost of doing business in New Zealand (31%). However, the most notable shift from last year was a sharp rise in concern over an escalating trade war, cited by 27% of respondents. 

“Increased concern around trade wars becoming a barrier was expected, with a 15% rise from last year. Concerns over high tariffs due to a lack of trade agreements also saw a 7% increase,” said Tan. 

Exporters remain divided on the level of external support they were willing to accept, with a quarter (25%) of respondents saying they didn’t require any assistance from NZTE in overseas markets. Meanwhile, 22% indicated they would like more help, with 20% seeking support for R&D and another 20% wanting access to market research.

In this year’s survey, exporters voiced strong support (32%) for ‘More Free-Trade Agreements with new partners’, alongside ‘Support for attending trade shows’ (32%) as the most desired forms of government assistance to help boost export activity. 

The full 2025 ExportNZ DHL Barometer Report will be released in late August, following an online webinar on Wednesday, 20th August, hosted by DHL and ExportNZ. Speakers Selina Deadman and Joshua Tan will discuss the key findings of the report and provide exporters with advice on how to reduce their exporting costs. Further information on the upcoming webinar can be found on DHL Discover.