It’s impossible to forecast the next global developments other than to state the obvious – even if the conflict comes to a rapid and peaceful conclusion, the damage to oil production and distribution infrastructure around the Gulf region and wider supply chain disruption will mean a normal supply situation is some months away.

So, it’s perhaps most relevant to outline how the government plans to respond to any increased fuel supply uncertainty. It will be guided by the National Fuel Plan – a strategy established in 2024 – which was put into action at the beginning of the conflict.

The plan has four clear phases that respond proportionately to any risks to New Zealand’s fuel security. These phases are assessed separately for petrol, diesel and jet fuel – to reflect their different functions and challenges.

At each phase is a set of measures responding to a heightened risk to New Zealand’s fuel security.

On Wednesday April 15 when this issue went to press New Zealand remained under Phase 1 (Watchful) measures with 56.3 days of petrol stock, 45.4 days of diesel and 47 days of jet fuel. In each case slightly less than half of those amounts were in-country, with the remainder on the water within three weeks of expected arrival.

The Fuel Security Ministerial Oversight Group will be responsible for deciding whether a shift between phases is appropriate, with the group required to consider a move when there is a change in any of the six assessment criteria. The criteria that will be used to assess a movement up or down a response phase are:

export restrictions – if any of New Zealand’s source refineries introduce or relax export restrictions.

changes to New Zealand’s fuel stock levels of plus or minus three days since the most recent published update.

a fuel company informs the government that they are unlikely or unable to fill future orders.

a breach, or a notification of an imminent breach, of the minimum storage obligations.

any significant policy changes in Australia or from the International Energy Agency.

a significant disruption to regional distribution.

“The plan is designed to keep fuel flowing where it matters most, relying on market settings wherever possible, and only stepping in further if supply is genuinely at risk,” says Finance Minister Nicola Willis.

Phase 1 (Watchful) focuses on monitoring global developments, easing restrictions to increase optionality (such as changing fuel specifications), providing information to fuel consumers of measures to support voluntary reductions in fuel use, and working with fuel companies to keep fuel moving efficiently across the country.

Phase 2 (Precautionary) would see more active coordination between government and industry to shore up fuel supply and support increased efforts in demand reduction.

At Phase 2 there would be a stronger push for voluntary uptake by households and businesses of measures that help to conserve fuel, and a reduction in the public sector’s use of fuel where appropriate.

If disruption increases, the plan allows for stronger interventions at Phases 3 and 4, prioritising fuel for emergency services, freight and food supply chains, and key industries that underpin New Zealand’s economy.

“The measures at Phases 1 and 2 are designed to prevent a move to more restrictive measures. This plan is about staying ahead of the risk, managing pressure in the system and keeping the economy moving,” Nicola Willis says.

“It is prudent, however, to plan for all scenarios so that everyone – the Government, industries, businesses and the general public – is prepared.”

At Phases 3 and 4 there is increased control of fuel supply. The precise details of these phases are under consultation.

At Phase 3 (Managed) fuel supply priority goes to ensuring uninterrupted supply to life-preserving services (ambulance, fire, hospitals and food supply chain), introduces purchasing limits and providing more regular (likely daily) public updates.

Phase 4 (Protected) maintains the supply to essential services, but for others a key piece of wording is “use service stations as directed”.

Specifically, fuel supply would be maintained in the following order of priority.

Band A: life-supporting services, providing uncapped supply to emergency services, courts, corrections, hospitals, lifeline utilities and defence.

Band B: economically-important services, which includes critical transport services (road freight for supermarket and grocery supply chains, international air links), food supply, and primary production during time-critical periods.

Band C: essential services, deemed as public transport, essential infrastructure maintenance, and rural GPs and district nurses.

Band D: other commercial customers, comprising all other commercial and business fuel users.

Band E: general retail sales to customers.

A group of senior Ministers will make each decision on whether to move between Phases. It may be that different fuels may be at different Phases – for example diesel may be at Phase 2 and the same time as petrol is at Phase 1.

Associate Energy Minister Shane Jones, who has responsibility for fuel security, says the Government has worked closely with industry on developing the updates to the National Fuel Plan.

“This is critical because the plan relies on fuel companies cooperating and working constructively with government,” he says.

“My expectation is that we continue to work together as the situation evolves. The industry will play a key role in providing advice to the Ministerial Oversight Group if and when we are required to consider a move between phases.”