Truckometer - Bit of a Jump start
Posted: 09-Jun-2020 |
According to the latest ANZ Truckometer report (which included 13 days of Level 3 lockdown and 18 days of Level 2), In May the Light Traffic Index recovered more than half of its April fall, but it was still 37% lower than last May for the month as a whole. While the Heavy Traffic bounced more, and is 7.8% lower than May 2019.
It says that a further increase in both heavy and light traffic is expected with the imminent move to Level 1 and that Heavy traffic is likely to be the better GDP indicator through this period.
Normally, the two ANZ Truckometer indexes usually reflect economic activity. However, the lockdown period will have broken the link between light traffic and GDP in particular.
According to the report, in May the Light Traffic Index recovered more than half its April fall, while the Heavy Traffic Index recovered more. But rather than focusing on the monthly data, it is more revealing to look at how traffic changed in the different levels of lockdown.
In Alert Level 4, weekday heavy traffic was just 47% of what it was a year earlier, while during the weekends, it was 34%. Weekday car traffic was 23% of year-earlier levels, and 13% in weekends.
In Level 3, heavy traffic stepped up significantly to 81% and 74% of year earlier levels in weekdays and weekends respectively. Light traffic bounced less under Level 3, to 59% and 44% weekdays and weekends.
In Level 2, weekday heavy traffic was 100% of a year earlier; in the weekends, 102%, suggesting a degree of catch-up activity. Weekday car traffic was 90% of year-earlier levels, and in the weekends, 92%.
The report ends by suggesting that 'Normality Beckons'.